Edge-discovery north star

North star. Find alpha/edge as soon as honest evidence allows. The primary lane is a wide cross-sectional free-look battery on owned data, followed by pre-registration of survivors; keep proposing better payers, datasets and structures instead of waiting for the current idea family to improve. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)

• Positive case: widening the search from a few efficient intraday names to many independent cross-sectional bets increases the chance of finding a real payer. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• Rigorous boundary: speed does not relax chronology, trial counting, lockbox, cost, risk or owner-authority gates. Survivors earn a one-shot validation; they are not presumed profitable. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• Standing duty: every status should include better edge-finding ideas—new payers, owned or obtainable data, and new market structures. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)

Honest expectation

Aim for a portfolio, not a miracle.

• Expected shape: documented individual edges often claim 5–15%/yr gross; the realistic target is a portfolio of uncorrelated survivors at about 1–3%/month net, conditional on the survivors holding up. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• Not the claim: this is not a promise of 20%/month from one strategy. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)

Owner decision register

Taken choices stay taken; unresolved choices remain visibly open. Dates and status below come from the two supplied owner-memory records.

Backwards plan to live

Target: first real orders on 15 Sep 2026, conditional on every earlier gate. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)

• 27–28 Aug 2026: run the battery on the 1998–2021 screen, complete confirm-cards and rank the leads. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• 29 Aug–2 Sep 2026: pre-register at most 5 survivors; bind production Sharadar; finish the EOD-data → close-signal → next-open-order → reconciliation path; hash the risk policy and repair mirror caps. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• 3–5 Sep 2026: open the 2022–Aug 2026 lockbox once; evaluate trial-aware DSR, walk-forward η, plateau stability and 2× costs. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• 8–12 Sep 2026: rehearse the exact live path on paper with 0 incidents and measured same-signal shortfall. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• 15 Sep 2026: if admitted, send the first long-only real orders inside a sleeve of at most 5% NAV with the automated kill contract bound. (Source: north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)

Open decisions

Nothing requiring owner authority is silently defaulted.

• Q11 ratification: select A, B or C for the policy's 252-session expiry and reconciliation semantics before its hash enters any graduation receipt. (Sources: owner-decisions-2026-08-26.md; north-star-memory-2026-08-27.md.)
• Custody credential: privately provide FIRST_HOUR_CORPUS_CUSTODIAN_DATABASE_URL or authorize gateway-password rotation; never place the credential in chat or the repo. (Source: owner-decisions-2026-08-26.md.)
• Pooler password: still parked by Q8 and must remain on the open list. (Source: owner-decisions-2026-08-26.md.)

Final verdict: move fast by widening independent, payer-named screens; move to capital only through pre-registration, one-shot lockbox evidence, a rehearsed path and explicit owner authority.